Austria (19) v Hungary (47) – Group F – 5pm (ITV) – 14.06.16 – Matmut Atlantique, Bordeaux
Austria won nine of their 10 qualifying matches as part of an unbeaten campaign and they are big favourites to carry that into the Finals with a win over their neighbours Hungary.
Hungary last faced a team in the top-20 of our rankings in qualifying for the last World Cup, when they were beaten 4-1 and 8-1 by the Netherlands, and they won just four of their 10 qualifying group matches while scoring only 11 times. Furthermore, they’ve not won any of their last 12 matches against higher ranked teams, though they did manage seven draws.
Austria have lost friendlies against Switzerland and Turkey since qualifying for these Finals but they are both strong sides and in their last nine matches against teams ranked 25th-100th they’ve recorded seven wins (W7-D2-L0). That includes five consecutive wins in this qualifying campaign, part of a run of wins in all of their last nine competitive games.
Half of Hungary’s 12 qualifiers, including the play-offs, had fewer than two goals, and given we think they’ll struggle to score it follows that both Under 2.5 Goals at 1.61 and Under 1.5 at 2.75 are excellent value.
Recommendation: Under 1.5 Goals 2.75
- Austria and Hungary have only ever faced off once before – in the 1934 World Cup Quarter Finals. Austria won 2-1 but lost to Italy in the semi-finals, before losing the 3rd place playoff to Germany
- After drawing in their first qualifying game to Sweden, Austria went on to win their remaining 9 matches and top their qualifying group
- Scoring 22 and only conceding 5, Austria’s +17 GD was the fourth highest in qualifying
- Marc Janko was Austria’s top scorer in qualifying with 7 goals
- Hungary finished third in their group, but qualified through the playoffs with a 3-1 aggregate win over Norway
- Daniel Bode and Krisztian Nemeth are Hungary’s highest scorers with two goals apiece
- Hungary had the joint-lowest points tally of any team entering the playoffs after the qualifying stages (16, tied with Slovenia)