A controversial penalty decision denied Southampton a point in north-London last weekend but either way they still would’ve remained winless after four games. Claude Puel registered his first on the south-coast in the Europa League on Thursday night and another three points against Swansea on Sunday would certainly quieten any doubters.
The Saints had a W15-D4-L1 record against bottom-half clubs in the previous two seasons and on that evidence 1.75 seems a fair price. However, they’ve struggled to replicate that form in the league this term, managing just 1-1 draws against Watford and Sunderland, both of which they started odds-on. Furthermore, the added element of recovering from Thursday night Europa League fixtures makes 1.75 seem short to us.
Swansea got the rub of the green against Chelsea on Sunday to earn a draw and by scoring it now means they’ve only failed to find the net in four of the 20 games since Francesco Guidolin took charge, resulting in both teams scoring in 12 including in eight of their 11 on the road. They’ll fancy their chances of netting once more against a Southampton defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet in 16 league games and considering both teams have scored in last eight at St. Mary’s we’ll back that again.
Best Bet: BTTS – Yes at 1.95