The first Der Klassiker of the season sees Dortmund in 5th and needing to close a six point gap to Bayern at the top, though the Bavarians haven’t been at their fluent best under Ancelotti. The champions remain unbeaten but have drawn three of their last five, giving some hope to the rest of the division.
After W/W doubles in their opening three home games, Dortmund have drawn their last two at the Westfalenstadion. Nonetheless, they’ve won 17 of 22 unbeaten home games under Thomas Tuchel, including a goalless draw in this fixture last term. Indeed, despite the attacking talent on both these teams, their meetings have largely tended to be low-scoring. Seven of their 12 clashes in the Bundesliga since 2010/11 saw fewer than three goals, including five of the six at the Westfalenstadion as Dortmund had a W2-D2-L2 record in these games and conceded more than once in just one.
Bayern have won three of four unbeaten road games so far but they’re yet to travel to anyone currently in the top six. They struggled when travelling to fellow top-four sides last term as they drew at Dortmund and Leverkusen, while they were beaten at Monchengladbach. Given the current side doesn’t look on the same level as Guardiola’s from last term, Bayern look on the short side at 2.05 and so we’re backing the draw. Since Dortmund have managed just one goal in their last two at home while Bayern have scored more than once in just half their last six, we’re also backing Under 2.5 Goals.
Recommendations: Draw at 3.6