These sides were involved in a thriller in the first leg with the Citizens twice coming from behind to eventually triumph 5-3. Since then, Guardiola’s men have won three of four unbeaten games whilst conceding only one goal but Monaco have also been in good form, winning their three games in the league and knocking Marseille out of the Coupe de France.
Monaco have been imperious at home this term, with a W20-D2-L1 record overall, scoring 72 goals in the process (3.1 gpg). They drew their opening home game against Leverkusen in the group stages, but they beat CSKA Moscow and Spurs, whilst they’ve beaten the two sides behind them in Ligue 1, PSG and Nice, by an aggregate of 6-1 at the Stade Louis II.
City have undoubtedly improved in recent weeks, but they’ve had a soft run of fixtures in the Premier League, playing West Ham, Swansea, Bournemouth, Sunderland and Stoke in their last five. They’ve lost at Everton, Liverpool, Leicester and Spurs, while they’ve won only one of their last seven away in the Champions League and have kept only one clean sheet in their last 16 away in this competition. What’s more, sides that have lost the first away leg of a knockout tie by two goals but managed to net an away goal have won seven of the eight return legs since 2004/05, while the last three sides since 2011/12 have all managed to qualify. As a result, we’re siding with the hosts.
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