Deportivo managed a draw at Espanyol to continue their improved results and move up to 15th. They’ve picked up seven points from their last four, with their only loss in that time a narrow 3-2 defeat at the Bernabeu. Villarreal managed a point at home to Barca to stretch their unbeaten run to four games as they’re now 5th, just a point behind Atletico in 4th.
Depor’s home form is also strong as they’ve won three of their last five at the Estadio Riazor, with their only defeat in that time coming against Sevilla. They’ve in fact been ahead at the break in their last six at home, while they’ve also fared reasonably well when hosting teams between 3rd and 6th as they’ve lost just two of seven such games since the start of last season, beating Sociedad this term and Celta Vigo last, while they also drew against Bilbao, Atletico and Sevilla last season.
Villarreal have won just one of their last six on the road, and that was at struggling Gijon, who are down in 18th. The draw’s been the most common outcome in their road games since the start of last season (W8-D10-L9) and it’s an option that we like the look of here at 3.1. We’d have Deportivo slightly shorter than Villarreal given the visitors’ lack of away wins, but their high number of stalemates on the road together with Depor’s strong draw trend in similar fixtures means that we’re backing the draw.