Crotone were beaten 2-0 at home to Juve, the fifth time they’ve failed to score in their last seven and so they remain down in 19th, nine points from safety. Roma, meanwhile, bounced back from their disappointing 3-2 defeat at Sampdoria as they thumped Fiorentina 4-0 at home, but they now trail Juve by seven points and so can’t afford any more slipups.
Crotone have won three of their last seven at home, losing just three times at the Stadio Ezio Scida in that time. They’ve already hosted Napoli and Juve and were competitive against both, losing only 2-1 against Napoli and getting in to half time against Juve at 0-0, before going on to lose 2-0. As such, this is unlikely to be as straightforward as odds of 1.4 about Roma suggest.
However, Roma’s cause will be helped by the return of Mohamed Salah from the African Cup of Nations as since the start of last season they score 36% more goals with the Egyptian in the starting line-up. Roma have in fact lost half of their last six on the road but they’re pretty reliable against the lesser sides as they’ve won five of seven unbeaten games at bottom-five teams since the start of last season. They’ve kept clean sheets in both of those games that were this season but since they haven’t scored more than twice in any of their last seven on the road, whilst Crotone haven’t conceded more than twice in eight at home, we’re backing the 0-2 correct score.
Betting intelligence provided by Football Form Labs