Barcelona have it all to do once again after their 3-0 defeat in the first leg, though they certainly know they’re capable of overturning such a deficit, as they proved against PSG in the last round. Juve warmed up for the return with a comfy 2-0 win at Pescara, their third clean sheet in a row in all competitions as they bid to exact revenge for their defeat against the Catalans in the 2015 final.
Teams that have lost the first away leg of a Champions League knockout game by three goals have won all nine returns since 1997/98, though only Deportivo, who beat Milan 4-0 in 2003/04, managed to progress. Barca were on the other side of things a couple of years ago when they beat Bayern 3-0 at home in their semi-final before losing the return 3-2 at the Allianz and we think they’ll pick up a win here as well. Barca have won 19 of 20 Champions League home games since 2013/14, with six of the last seven of these seeing more than three goals, making the Catalans an appealing price at 1.55, whilst Over 3.5 Goals also looks a fair price at 2.1.
Juve have won all four of their away games so far this season whilst conceding just one goal, though none of those sides have been of Barca’s calibre. When travelling to sides we have ranked above them they’re just W0-D3-L3 since 2012/13 as they conceded at least twice in four of these six games, though didn’t lose any by more than two goals. Indeed, the Old Lady have never lost a Champions League away game by more than two so we think they’ll have enough of a lead to make it through, though we are backing Barca to win this leg. We’re going to take a punt on the 3-1 correct score, the same scoreline Barca beat Juve by in the 2015 final.
Betting intelligence provided by Football Form Labs