Germany edged out England in a friendly on Wednesday and Jogi Low’s side are expectedly cruising through qualification so far as they’ve won all four of their games, scoring 16 times without reply. Azerbaijan are in with a decent chance of claiming the runners-up spot as they currently only trail Northern Ireland on goal difference.
However, Azerbaijan were thumped 4-0 when they went to Northern Ireland and they’ve also lost four of their last nine at home. They’ve lost six of seven winless home games against teams we have ranked in the world’s top-15, though Spain were the only side to score more than three times against them or win by more than two goals. With Ozil unlikely to feature and Muller not in the best of form for Bayern this season, the Germans may not put up a big number here.
Germany have lost three of their last six away games, but two of those were against France and when travelling to sides we have ranked outside the world’s top-50 (Azerbaijan are 98th) they’re W6-D0-L1 since 2012, keeping five clean sheets, though their only win by more than three goals came at lowly San Marino as they picked up three 3-0 victories in this sample. That’s a scoreline we fancy again here.
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