Sevilla v Villarreal
15:00
Sevilla’s run of five consecutive wins was brought to an end as they were beaten 3-1 at Espanyol and so they drop down to 3rd, four points behind Real Madrid, who also have a game in hand. Villarreal picked up their first win in four as they beat bottom of the league Granada at home to remain in 6th, eight points behind Sevilla.
Whilst Sevilla may not have banished their away demons from last season, they remain an excellent side at home as they’ve won eight of nine at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium, with the exception a defeat against Barcelona. When hosting teams between 4th and 8th they’re W7-D1-L1 since 2014/15 as they led at the break in five of these games and four of their victories were without conceding.
Villarreal have managed only two away wins this season but they do tend to draw a lot on their travels, with their 11 stalemates in 28 road games since the start of last season the most common match outcome. They drew at Bilbao, Atletico and Celta Vigo last term, whilst they’ve also drawn at the Bernabeu this season and as such we’re a little reluctant to back Sevilla at 1.7. Instead, since five of Villarreal’s six trips to teams between 3rd and 8th since the start of last season saw fewer than two goals, Under 2.5 Goals looks a big price at close to evens.
