Arturo Vidal’s missed penalty could prove crucial in this tie as had he scored the Bavarians would have gone 2-0 up. Instead, Cristiano Ronaldo equalised just after half time, before adding a second following Javi Martinez’s red card. With Barca in big trouble in their tie against Juve, Los Blancos are as short as 3.0 to become the first side ever to retain the Champions League.
Real have lost just one of their 21 Champions League games since the start of last season and so Bayern face a massive task if they’re to overturn this deficit. They’ve lost only one of 34 at the Bernabeu since 2011/12 and they’ve won three of five unbeaten games at home to sides we have ranked in Europe’s top-five since 2012/13 in games that have generally been tight as all five of these saw fewer than three goals.
Teams that have won the first away leg of a Champions League knockout game by one goal but without a clean sheet are W2-D2-L1 in the return since 2005/06 (all five went on to qualify) in games that have tended to be cagey as four were goalless at the break and three went on to have fewer than two goals, while all five had fewer than three. Bayern are just W6-D3-L7 in Champions League away games since 2014/15 and only W1-D3-L3 in knockout games, with that sole victory coming over Arsenal so we don’t think they’ll be able to get the result they need here. They’ve failed to score in three of their four trips to top-five ranked sides since 2013/14, with two of these seeing fewer than two goals and since Real don’t need to win, this could prove a low-scoring encounter. We’re backing Under 2.5 Goals at 2.6.
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