Montpellier have picked up only one point from their last four and so have slipped down to 14th, just five points clear of the relegation zone. Toulouse, meanwhile, have drawn four of their last five and so are down to 12th, four points ahead of their hosts.
Montpellier have shipped 11 in their last four as they in fact have the second worst defence in the division, ahead only of bottom of the league Lorient. They’re W7-D5-L3 at home this term, though they haven’t kept a clean sheet in six at the Stade de la Mosson and have won just twice in their last six there. One of those was against Bastia who are struggling down in 19th, and so they look a little vulnerable here.
Toulouse have won only once away all season but they have drawn seven of their 15 away games, including at the likes of PSG and Marseille. Their only defeat in their last four away came at Lyon, the only instance they’ve concede more than once in their last five on the road. Given Montpellier’s leaky defence, Toulouse will expect to score here and in doing so we think they can pick up another away point. We’re backing the 1-1 correct score at 6.5.
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