Following Man Utd’s weekend win and Man City’s exit from the FA Cup at the hands of Arsenal, this Manchester Derby could well determine who finishes in fourth place this season. United did not look altogether convincing in their extra-time win over Andelecht to progress in the Europa League, but they lie fifth, just one point behind City after the same number of games and three points behind Liverpool, who have two games in hand. City, however, will be looking for a home repeat of the 2-1 win they recorded at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture.
United have been excellent away from home this season, going W10-D3-L2 on the road, the best away record in the league, while conceding only 13 times in those 15 games. Having picked up points in five of their last six against top-six sides, it’s arguably surprising to see them priced as long as 4.2 even without Zlatan Ibrahimovic – they’ve won each of the last two games he’s failed to start, including against Chelsea. David Silva is likely to be absent for the hosts, and given that the Citizens score only 1.67 goals per game when he fails to start compared to 2.02 goals per game when he does line up, we could be in for a low-scoring contest.
City have failed to dominate against top-seven sides this season: they’ve gone W2-D4-L5 against such teams, with only one of those wins coming in their last nine games. Three draws in their last four such games plus United’s strong recent record makes backing the visitors on the Double Chance worthwhile. Under 2.5 is also a strong bet with both sides missing players.
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