Ajax certainly have one foot in the Europa League final after their emphatic 4-1 victory in the first leg as they bid to win their first European honours since the 1994/95 Champions League. Lyon bounced back from the defeat in Amsterdam with a 3-2 win over Nantes, though they continue to be vulnerable defensively and that certainly cost them in the first leg. Ajax once again impressed with a 4-0 win over the Go Ahead Eagles to close within a point of Feyenoord as they’re in good shape with the season drawing to a conclusion.
Lyon have won all three of their Europa League home knockout games to date, scoring 13 goals in the process, but they’re yet to keep a clean sheet. They’re W10-D2-L1 at home in this competition since 2012/13 with their sole defeat coming against Juventus back in 2014 and it’s for that reason that they’re as short as 1.67 here, despite the heavy defeat in the first leg.
However, Ajax will take confidence from the fact that sides that won the first home leg of a Europa League knockout tie by more than two goals are W4-D1-L1 in the return since 2014/15. What’s more, they’ve lost only four of their 11 Europa League away games since 2014/15, trailing at the break in just one of these. As a result, we’re taking Lyon on here as Ajax should have plenty of chances against their suspect defence. We’re siding with the visitors on the double chance, whilst the half-time draw is also of interest at 2.6.
Recommendation: Ajax or Draw Double Chance at 2.15
Betting intelligence provided by Football Form Labs
