Juventus v Monaco
15:00
Juventus produced a masterclass at the Stade Louis II in the first leg, keeping their sixth straight clean sheet and in doing so stopped Monaco from scoring on their own turf for the first time since November 2015. Since then, Juve were held to a draw in the Turin derby, though they played a rotated side no doubt with this fixture in mind. Monaco bounced back with a convincing 3-0 win at Nancy to leave themselves in pole position to secure the title, though they’ll have to create history if they’re to overturn the 2-0 deficit from the first leg and make it to Cardiff.
Juve are unbeaten in 18 Champions League home games since 2013/14 and after drawing their opening two at the J Stadium this term, they’ve since beaten Dinamo Zagreb, Porto and Barca without conceding. Five of the last six sides to have won the first away leg of a Champions League knockout tie by two goals have kept a clean sheet in the return and so the Juve clean sheet is certainly of interest at 2.3.
However, Monaco will take heart from the fact that only five of the 12 sides since 2012/13 with a two goal lead from the first away leg have won the return, though all of them did manage to progress. These games have tended to be tight as eight of these saw fewer than three goals and we think it could be a similar case here with Juve’s watertight defence set to frustrate Leonardo Jardim’s men once again. We’ll back Under 2.5 Goals as we expect Juve to cruise through to the final without any concerns.
Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals at 2.0
Betting intelligence provided by Football Form Labs
