By Adam Haworth – Turf Moor, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=13508444
Having yo-yoed between the top two divisions in the past couple of years Burnley will merely hope to survive this term. Burnley netted just 28 times in the Prem two seasons back and again goals could be the issue as their total of 72 goals last year was 26 fewer than Bournemouth managed in winning the Championship in 2015.
Swansea, meanwhile, showed major improvement under Francesco Guidolin as they averaged 1.56 points per game from the 16 he was in charge; an average that would have seen them finish ninth over a whole season. Their total of 42 goals last term was the lowest of their five seasons in the top flight. In addition last season’s top scorer Andrew Ayew is on his way to West Ham and as a result they look very short of attacking options despite the signing of Fernando Llorente from Sevilla.
In the last two seasons 10 of Swansea’s 12 matches against promoted sides have had fewer than three goals with six seeing no more than two. What’s more, Burnley’s defensive organisation under Sean Dyche is their strength so we don’t expect this to be an open game. 61% of the Clarets home matches last term finished with fewer than three scores meaning goalmouth action could be at a premium.
Recommendation: Under 1.5 Goals at 2.75