Borussia Dortmund v Leipzig
15:00
Dortmund’s 1-1 draw at Mainz was their fourth stalemate in their last five games as they’ve struggled for goals but have been boosted by the early return of Aubameyang from the African Cup of Nations after Gabon were knocked out at the group stages. Leipzig are back to winning ways after suffering their first defeats of the season, beating Frankfurt and Hoffenheim in their last two to remain in 2nd, 11 points clear of Dortmund and just three off Bayern at the top.
Dortmund have now won 19 of 25 unbeaten home games since the start of last season, including a victory over Bayern this term, the only top-five side they’ve hosted to date. Last season they beat Leverkusen, Schalke and Mainz of the top-six at home and for a side with such a strong record and close to a fully fit squad available, they look a big price at 1.75.
Leipzig have lost and failed to score in their last two away matches, trailing at the break in both of these defeats. They drew at Hoffeheim on the opening day of the season and since then have only gone to Bayern of the top-six and were well beaten. Since they’re without a clean sheet in their five trips to top-half sides so far, we think they could well suffer their third away defeat in a row. Dortmund have led at the break in their last seven home wins, while Leipzig have trailed at the break in their last two on the road, so we’re backing Dortmund/Dortmund HT/FT.
