Besiktas were sitting pretty in the first leg after taking an early lead thanks to Ryan Babel, but two late goals for Lyon means that the Super Lig leaders have a 2-1 deficit to overturn here. The Turkish side haven’t played since that game, whilst Lyon’s match with Bastia was abandoned at half-time, so both teams should be fresh for this encounter as they bid to book their spot in the semi-finals.
Besiktas has generally proven a tough place to go to for European sides as they’re W6-D6-L1 at home in European competition since 2014/15, with the most eye-catching of these results victories over both Spurs and Liverpool, whilst they also managed a draw with Napoli in the group stages of the Champions League this season. They’ll also be buoyed by the fact that six of the 11 sides since 2014/15 that lost the first away leg of a Europa League knockout tie by one goal, but managed an away goal, have progressed (W6-D1-L4). These games tended to produce goals as seven saw more than three strikes and since Besiktas have kept only one clean sheet in their last nine European home games, we expect the same again here.
Lyon have won only four of their last 16 European away matches and have lost three of their last four Europa League road games. Indeed, since they’ve lost four of their last seven away league games, as well as backing Over 3.5 Goals here, we’re going to side with Besiktas to pick up the win, whilst the Turkish side are also worth backing at 3.0 in the ‘to qualify’ market given the strong record of sides overturning one goal deficits with the crucial away goal in their favour.
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