Neither of these sides are having the best domestic campaigns as Bayer are down in 8th in the Bundesliga, while Atletico are only 4th in La Liga. However, Bayer were unbeaten in the group stages of this competition, while Atletico won their group ahead of Bayern as they look to go one better than their runners-up finishes in 2014 and 2016.
Leverkusen have drawn four of their last five at home in the Champions League and have lost only once at the BayArena in Europe’s premier competition since 2014/15. They’ve managed a draw against Barca and beat Atletico themselves 1-0 when these sides met at the same stage in 2015. Indeed, when hosting sides ranked above them (we have Bayer 16th in Europe and Atletico 4th) Bayer are W7-D1-L3, whilst top-four sides Dortmund and Frankfurt have been beaten by an aggregate of 5-0 at Leverkusen this term in the league.
All that means that Atletico look too short to us at 2.25. Simeone’s men recorded narrow 1-0 wins at Rostov and PSV in the group stages while they’ve won only five of their 12 away games in La Liga and three of those were against bottom-six sides. They’ve lost 3-0 at Villarreal and 2-0 at Real Sociedad and we wouldn’t be surprised to see them fail to score in defeat here, as they did in 2015. Leverkusen look a decent proposition at 2.3 Draw No Bet, but we’re going to back the home win to nil at 4.75.
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