Real have once again proven Atletico’s nemesis in the Champions League as Los Blancos look set to knock out their city rivals for the fourth season in a row after their 3-0 triumph at the Bernabeu in the first leg. Since then, Real were comfortable 4-0 winners at Granada with a rotated side, whilst Atleti edged out Eibar 1-0 at the Calderon, which will host its final Champions League game here as Simeone’s men are set to move into their new stadium next term.
Atleti have a remarkable record on their own turf in the Champions League, going W17-D4-L1 since 2013/14, with that sole defeat against Benfica as they conceded just five goals across these games. Indeed, they’re yet to concede in five home games against Bayern, Barca and Real in that period as they won four of these either 1-0 or 2-0. This is the first time that they’ve been faced by a big first leg deficit to overcome, but history is on their side in that respect.
Sides that have lost the first away leg of a Champions League knockout tie by at least three goals have won six of the nine return legs since 2011/12, though it was only Barca against PSG this term that managed to progress. These games have been full of goals with six of the nine seeing more than two goals and four with more than four. Real have lost five of their nine away Champions League quarter-finals and semi-finals since 2012/13 and so we think Atleti can at least salvage some pride here by winning their last Champions League game at the Calderon.
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