Borussia Dortmund v Benfica
15:00
The most evenly balanced Champions League tie this week sees Dortmund try to overcome a 1-0 deficit from the first leg, something they’re priced at only 1.73 to do. Dortmund have won all three of their league games since the defeat in Portugal, including a 6-2 win against Leverkusen at the weekend, though their visitors remain in impressive form and still top the Primeira Liga.
Recent history will also be against Dortmund here as only four of the 14 sides to have lost 1-0 in the first leg of an away Champions League knockout tie since 2009/10 went on to progress, and two of those needed penalties to do so. All four kept a clean sheet and that could be a problem for Dortmund, who have kept only one clean sheet in their last six Champions League home games and in only two of their last seven at home in all competitions.
Tuchel’s side are unbeaten at home this term and have won five of their last six at home in the Bundesliga, including against Bayern and Leipzig, and so while they may well win in the 90 minutes, we fancy Benfica to get on the scoresheet. They’ve done so in seven of their eight Champions League away games since the start of last season, while they’ve lost only three of their 22 Champions League away matches since 2011/12 by more than one goal. With that in mind, we’re backing Benfica to qualify at 2.0, with both teams to score also worth backing at 1.95.
Betting intelligence provided by Football Form Labs
