AC Milan v Sampdoria
15:00
After a run of just two defeats in 16 games, Milan have suffered back-to-back losses as they were beaten 1-2 by Napoli and lost 2-1 at Udinese last time out. As a result, they drop down to 7th, 10 points clear of their visitors. Sampdoria ended a six game winless run with a 3-2 victory at home to Roma and so they’ve shot up the table from 16th to 12th.
Milan have won seven of their 11 home games, including against Juve and Lazio, while they’ve been beaten only twice at the San Siro. When hosting teams between 7th and 14th they’re W6-D2-L2 since the start of last season and it’s worth noting that all their victories have been by just a single goal margin, while they were level at the break in seven of these 10 games.
Sampdoria have managed impressive home wins over the likes of Roma, Inter and Atalanta, but they’ve struggled on their travels as they haven’t won away since the opening day of the season. They’ve lost all four of their trips to top-six sides to date, but three of those defeats were by just a single goal while the other was at Juve, the only one of these four that they trailed at the break in. With that in mind, we’re backing Draw/Milan (half-time/full-time), as has been the case in their last five home wins, whilst we’re also backing the one goal winning margin.
Recommendations: Draw/Milan HT/FT at 4.5 One Goal Winning Margin at 2.5
