Watford v Middlesbrough
15:00 - 14/1/2017 - Vicarage Road, Watford
Watford progressed to the fourth round of the FA Cup with a win over Burton Albion, but that cannot hide the fact that their league form remains poor. They’ve lost six of their last eight league games in a run that extends back to their defeat at home to Stoke in late November, and they must now take on Middlesbrough, who have not won in their last 10 on the road in the league.
The defining characteristic of Watford matches against bottom-six teams has been that they’ve been close. Against such opposition, Watford have now played six games in a row featuring fewer than three goals, and they have not been ahead at the break in any of those games. At home, they are undefeated in their last 10 against bottom-six sides, but four of the six most recent games in that stretch have been draws. Middlesbrough have not beaten a bottom-half side on the road since they won at Sunderland early in the season, and four of their last five games against such opposition have gone ‘unders’, so it’s likely that this’ll be a low-scoring encounter – Under 2.5 goals looks like a banker at 1.5.
Watford haven’t lost to Middlesbrough at all since 2012, but the Hornets have been very unconvincing lately. Middlesbrough could easily edge this, so we think that the value lies in backing them on the Draw No Bet at the prices.