Villarreal picked up an excellent 1-0 win at Sociedad last time out to move within six points of Atletico in 4th. Real, on the other hand, suffered a surprise defeat at Valencia as they were beaten 2-1 and so their lead at the top remains at one point, but now with only one game in hand as Barca and Sevilla are back in the title race.
Real have another tough fixture here as Villarreal have lost only five of their 31 home games since the start of last season, and none of these defeats came against top-five sides. Indeed, Villarreal have lost this fixture only once in the last four seasons and since the Yellow Submarine have picked up eight points from their four home games against top-five visitors to date, we’re looking to take Real on at 1.7.
Los Blancos have now won only one of their last four on the road, and that was at bottom of the league Osasuna. They’ve kept only one clean sheet in their last eight on their travels and picked up only one point from recent trips to Sevilla and Barca. Villarreal have the best defence in the league and since Real have scored more than once in only one of their last four away, they could drop further points here. We’re backing Villarreal or Draw Double Chance at 2.1, with the 1-1 correct score of interest at 7.5.
Betting intelligence provided by Football Form Labs