Southampton v Manchester City
17.30 - 15/4/2017 - St. Mary's, Southampton
Southampton overcame a typically dogged West Brom side at the Hawthorns to move to three games unbeaten and just one loss in their last five, and while their home form has brought them just two victories in their last six at St Mary’s, they’ve got the sixth-best defensive record in the league, so they’ll hope they can keep it tight against Man City, their visitors this weekend. The Citizens bounced back from their recent defeat at Chelsea with a 3-1 win over Hull, and will hope they can keep up the momentum at St Mary’s on Saturday evening.
Ahead of Saturday, Southampton will be reviewing their record this season against top-six sides with concern. They’ve not won against a top-six side this term, losing four of their six games and failing to score in half of those fixtures, and they now face a team that has lost only once against middle-third sides this season (Man City lost to Everton 0-4 at the Etihad). The only teams that have scored fewer at home than Southampton are Middlesbrough and Sunderland, and with Manolo Gabbiadini in doubt they might struggle here. They will, however, take confidence from Man City’s weakness at the back this season: they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet on the road this season, so we think that Southampton have more than a sniff despite problems scoring at home.
The headline stat for this one is that City have won nine of 10 against sides outside the top seven this season: while Southampton might have an eye on City’s defensive record, the potential absence of Gabbiadini and their scoring record at home makes 1.75 a good price for the away win.