Monaco took a huge step towards the semi-finals with their 3-2 win in the first leg and they continue to win domestically as well as they beat Dijon 2-1 at home on the weekend to maintain their three point lead at the top of Ligue 1. Dortmund bounced back with a 3-1 win over Frankfurt and will have been pleased to see Reus and Aubameyang back in the goals, both of whom will be crucial to their chances here.
However, history certainly isn’t on Dortmund’s side as teams that have won the first away leg of a Champions League knockout tie by one goal are W11-D2-L1 in the return since 2007/08, leading at the break in 11 of these matches. Monaco have won their last three Champions League home games, including against Spurs and Man City, whilst they’ve lost just one of nine at home since 2014/15. Indeed, Leonardo Jardim’s side have been imperious at the Stade Louis II this term, going W17-D2-L1 in the league and Champions League and as a result they look a big price at 3.0, particularly given Dortmund’s struggles on their travels this term.
Tuchel’s men have won just one of their seven league and Champions League away games this year, losing 4-1 at Bayern in their last road game. They’ve won only eight of their 22 Champions League away matches since 2011/12 and have lost four of the last five of these that were knockout games. With that in mind, we certainly couldn’t be backing Dortmund at 2.3 and instead we’re siding with Monaco to continue to exceed expectations this term.
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