Liverpool’s 3-1 win over Arsenal represented a continuation of the Reds’ excellent form at home over Klopp, but realistically they are out of contention for the title and must now fight tooth-and-nail for a top-six spot. This week they host Burnley, who are winless in five and went down last weekend against Swansea after a heated and controversial contest. The visitors have the worst away record in the league, but Liverpool have let themselves down repeatedly against weaker teams, so perhaps Burnley can hold their own at Anfield.
Liverpool have beaten Spurs and Arsenal recently, but those have been their only two wins in the league this year so far. Part of their current malaise can be attributed to their defensive frailties: six of their last eight home games against teams outside the top six have featured more than four goals. Given that five of Burnley’s last six on the road have featured at least three, we’ll almost certainly see plenty of goals here. Burnley will be helped by the return of Tom Heaton, but less fortunate is the news that Steven Defour will be absent, without whom their win percentage drops from 47% to 17%.
Liverpool haven’t looked good enough since the new year for us to back them in the moneyline market, but given that both have scored in eight of the last nine times they’ve hosted a team outside the top six, as has been the case in each of Burnley’s last six on the road, we’ll back Both to Score.
Betting intelligence provided by Football Form Labs