Leicester battled to keep it to just a 1-0 defeat at the Calderon last week and as a result are very much still in this tie. Atletico looked like they might run away with things in the early stages but they’ll have been happy to have kept the clean sheet as they bid to make their third semi-final in the last four seasons.
Leicester have won all four of their Champions League home games this term, leading at the break in each of those victories and conceding just one goal across them. The Foxes have beaten Liverpool 3-1 and Man City 4-2 at the King Power this season and history tells us that we can expect goals in this one too. Teams that have lost the first away leg of a knockout Champions League knockout game 1-0 are W7-D3-L2 in the return since 2011/12, with eight of these seeing more than two strikes. It’s worth noting that five of these home sides went on to qualify, with two needing penalties to do so, and so the Foxes look overpriced at 5.5 to book a spot in the semi-finals.
Atletico have won only six of their 15 Champions League away games since 2014/15 and with that in mind they seem too short here at 2.05. Indeed, they’ve lost four of their last six Champions League away knockout games since 2014/15 and while they faced the likes of Bayern and Barca in that time, we’re looking to take them on at the prices. They’re just W0-D2-L3 when travelling to top-six teams in La Liga this term as they failed to keep a clean sheet in any of these games so as well as siding with the Foxes Draw No Bet, we’re backing Over 2.5 Goals at 2.1.
Betting intelligence provided by Football Form Labs
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