Italy trail Spain on goal difference alone at the top of Group G and will expect another three points when they host Albania, though Gianni De Biasi’s side have won two of their four qualifying games and proved at the Euros that they can be competitive against the top teams as it took France until the 90th minute to break them down.
Italy have only lost once in their last 19 home games but they did draw eight of these and they were generally tight as they didn’t score more than twice in any, with 14 seeing fewer than three goals. Indeed, they haven’t won any of their last nine competitive home games by more than one goal and so they look a touch short to us at 1.22.
Albania have lost only three of their last 11 away games and one of those was a 1-0 friendly defeat against Italy themselves back in 2014. Since the Albanians haven’t conceded more than twice in any of their last 20 on their travels, despite playing the likes of France (twice), Portugal and Italy themselves in that time, we’re backing an Italy Win and Under 2.5 Goals.
Betting intelligence provided by Football Form Labs