Burnley’s away woes persisted with a 2-1 defeat to Watford, but they’ve won seven on the trot at home and will hope that they can limit the damage when Chelsea visit this weekend. Chelsea put in an assured performance against Arsenal, and with a nine-point gap between them and Spurs in second, it seems that it is only a matter of time before they put the Premier League out of the reach of their rivals.
Burnley have gone W2-D1-L6 this season against top-six sides, but it’s worth noting that those three games in which they’ve picked up points have all come at home, and they’ve been level or better at the half in all five home games they’ve played against top-six opposition. This should give them some confidence that they can do better than the 3-0 defeat they suffered at Stamford Bridge in August. However, Chelsea have won all of their games against middle-third sides, and of the nine they’ve played against such sides they’ve won seven of them by at least two goals. They’ve been level at the half in two of their three away games against such sides, though, and we can see this happening again against a strong Burnley side.
Chelsea looked outstanding against Arsenal, and they are a cut above Burnley, but we think it could take them a while to break down the Clarets’ defences at home. Based on the tendency of these teams to go into the break level, we’ll back Draw/Chelsea HT/FT.