France are clear at the top of Group A, but just one point separates the Netherlands, Sweden and Bulgaria behind them. The Dutch have already lost to France at home and could only manage a draw in Sweden, whilst Bulgaria have managed to beat lesser sides Belarus and Luxembourg at home, but were well-beaten in trips to France and Sweden.
Bulgaria have won their last three at home and have lost only four of their last 16 on their own turf, managing a pair of draws against Italy in that time, whilst each of their defeats were by just one goal to nil. They conceded more than once in only three of these games, two of those were in draws with Italy, whilst the other was in a 4-3 win over Luxembourg and so we expect them to be competitive here.
The Dutch have won only two of their last six and have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 matches. Since Bulgaria have netted in seven of their last nine and 12 of their last 16 at home , we expect both teams to score here, as has happened in 12 of the Netherlands’s last 14 games. The Dutch have in fact been much better away than they have at home in recent times, winning six of eight unbeaten road games, but they conceded in seven of these. Netherlands to win and both teams to score is our standout selection, with the 2-1 correct score of interest at 8.5.
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