Dortmund topped Group F ahead of Real Madrid and as a result have earned themselves a clash with Benfica, who finished behind Napoli in Group B after losing to them at home and away. However, Benfica are having a better time of things domestically than Dortmund as they currently top the Primeira Liga, whilst Tuchel’s men are down in 4th in the Bundesliga, 15 points off Bayern.
Benfica’s only home win in the group stages was a narrow 1-0 triumph over Dynamo Kiev, though they remain a tough side to beat on their own turf as they’ve lost just three of 14 Champions League home matches since the start of 2013/14, though only two of these were knockout games and only three were against sides ranked higher than them according to our grading (we have Benfica 15th in Europe and Dortmund in 7th). They’ve lost three of their last five at home to teams ranked above them in the Champions League, but Benfica have won nine of 11 unbeaten home games in the league, winning the last three by an aggregate of 10-0, so they’re certainly in good form.
The same can’t be said for Dortmund, who were beaten 2-1 at bottom of the league Darmstadt on the weekend as they’ve won just one of their last six on their travels and are without an away clean sheet all season in the Bundesliga. As such, they look on the short side at 2.4, with Benfica an attractive proposition at 2.1 Draw No Bet. Dortmund won at Sporting and Legia Warsaw in the group stages, whilst they drew at Real Madrid in games that saw plenty of goals. Indeed, 11 of Dortmund’s 12 Champions League away games since 2013/14 have seen more than two goals and given the attacking talent at their disposal and their poor defensive away record, we expect there to be goals here as well. We’ll be backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.85.
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