Barca have bounced back emphatically from their 4-0 humiliation in Paris, winning all four games since to take the lead in La Liga, though they’d have to create history if they’re to overturn a 4-0 away defeat in a Champions League knockout tie. PSG have continued their good form, with their most impressive result since their famous win over the Catalans a 5-1 triumph at Marseille, and they’ll expect to get the job done here.
Barca have won all 14 of their Champions League home games since 2014/15 and have lost only one of their last 41 at home in this competition. They won by an aggregate of 15-0 in their three home games in the group stages, while they’ve conceded only two goals in their five home knockout games since 2014/15 and they led at the break in three of these victories, beating Arsenal, Bayern and PSG by more than one goal in that period.
While PSG are formidable at home in Europe, also losing just once in their last 41 at the Parc des Princes, they’ve lost six of their last 16 away in this competition, including three of their last five knockout ties. They’re just W1-D2-L5 when travelling to sides we have ranked in Europe’s top 10 since 2013/14, with that sole victory coming against the 2015/16 Chelsea side that was some way off their usual standard. They trailed at the break in four of these defeats and since Barca have led at the break in 11 of their last 14 at home in Europe, we’re backing Barca/Barca HT/FT as we expect them to at least get close to overcoming their 4-0 deficit here.
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