A late Fernando Torres goal gave Atletico a 4-2 lead in this tie as they bid to go one further than last season when they were beaten in the final by Real Madrid. Leverkusen continue to struggle as they’re down in 10th in the Bundesliga and have been beaten 6-2 at Dortmund since the defeat in the first leg.
Atletico are W16-D3-L1 at home in the Champions League since 2013/14 and have conceded only one goal in their last eight at the Calderon, despite hosting Bayern twice and Barcelona in that time. However, they’ve looked a little more vulnerable defensively this season and have kept only one two clean sheets in their last eight in all competitions.
Leverkusen were unbeaten in the group stages on their travels, drawing at Monaco and CSKA as well as beating Spurs, whilst they’ve scored in 15 of their 16 away games this term, with both sides netting in 13 of these. As such, we’re backing both teams to score at 1.75. Sides that have won the first away leg of a Champions League knockout tie by two goals are just W4-D2-L4 since 2012/13 in the return, but Atletico’s excellent home record means that we’re reluctant to side with Leverkusen and instead wouldn’t be surprised if this ended in a score draw, with the 1-1 and 2-2 correct scores both of interest at 7.5 and 13.0 respectively.
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