Milan are making a much better fist of things this season as they find themselves in 5th, just five points behind Roma in 2nd and with a game in hand. Indeed, it could have been even better for Vincenzo Montella’s side as they picked up just one point and failed to score in their last two games, though they were tough fixtures against Roma and Atalanta. Promoted Cagliari are also giving a decent account of themselves as they moved up to 14th with their 4-3 home win over Sassuolo in their last game to stretch 13 points clear of the relegation zone.
Milan have won five of seven unbeaten home games after a surprise defeat to Udinese, including wins over Juve and Lazio as they’ve proven a tough proposition at the San Siro. When hosting teams outside the top-seven they’ve won 10 of 18 games since the start of last season whilst losing just twice. That, together with their excellent home form means we expect them to pick up all three points in this one.
Cagliari have won six of their nine home games but they’ve lost seven of nine on the road, shipping 13 goals in their three visits to top-eight sides so far. It comes as little surprise that Milan struggled for goals in Carlos Bacca’s absence towards the end of last year but with the Colombian now fully fit, we expect Milan to build on their success in the Super Cup and start the year with a comfy win, so we’re backing them to cover the -1 handicap.