Burnley conceded 34 shots at St Mary’s on Sunday as they were dominated by the home side and they’ve now let in three goals in each of their three away matches. At home however, they’re a much tougher cookie to crack, conceding just three times all season with all five of their games seeing no more than two strikes.
Maarten Stekelenburg’s double penalty save earned Everton an impressive point at the Etihad but they are now three league games without a win, scoring just twice both of which came courtesy of Romelu Lukaku’s brilliance. Since Ronald Koeman and Ashley Williams’ arrival on Merseyside, the Toffees have tightened up considerably at the back as they’ve yet to concede more than once in the league, meaning under 2.5 goals looks a great shout here.
It could also be worth taking Everton on at 1.67 considering they’ve drawn seven of their last 10 away matches to promoted sides and won just four of their last 12 on the road against bottom-six clubs. However, the three goals Burnley have conceded at home this term have all come in the final 10 minutes as their resolute defending often crumbles in the latter stages of matches which is a worry for us, so we’ll just stick to ‘unders’.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 1.72